A Note from Texas and Games with Models, 7/1/20 Data


Reporter and writer Alex Berenson has shared correspondence he received from a Texas ER executive.  Basically, he says the big increase in new cases there has several explanations that aren’t grounds for panic (in my opinion).  With the increased availability of tests and employers’ requirement for workers to be tested when they show any symptoms, many younger folks with mild cases of COVID-19 are being tested.  Sometimes the doctors give them a shot, and when the hospital calls for a follow-up in three to five days, they’re completely better.

Also, people who were terrified of the pandemic and didn’t go to the hospital when they really should have are showing up in large numbers much sicker than they should have been.  They’re all being tested, and the data isn’t distinguishing those who are just incidentally positive for the coronavirus.  There’s more to the note, so read the whole thing.

We’ll see where this goes, but it remains entirely plausible to expect that cases will continue on the increase while serious cases and deaths continue to decline.

In Rhode Island, cases are only creeping up a little each day.  If the average duration of an infection is two weeks, that puts us at only 653 active cases.  (Of course, if cases last only a week, the number would be smaller, at 274.)

People in intensive care with COVID-19 in RI is approaching single digits, now at 11.  Daily deaths also continue to be low, approaching four weeks in the single digits.

New COVID-positive patients entering the hospital remain low.  However, such patients being discharged are also low, which could be an indication that they’re not actually in the hospital because of the virus.  Whatever the case, current trends would put hospitalizations below 50 by Tuesday.

Whether people ignore the maskless governor’s continuing commands during Independence Day weekend or not, and what effect that behavior has, remains to be seen.


(See here for my original methodology and here for a subsequent modification I made. A thorough explanation of the chart is included in this post.)

Projections versus actuals (date of report).

  • Cases:
    • Projection for 7/1: 16,851
    • Actual for 7/1: 16,853
    • Projection for 7/2: 16,885
  • Hospitalizations:
    • Projection for 7/1: 72
    • Actual for 7/1: 69
    • Projection for 7/2: 66
  • Deaths:
    • Projection for 7/1: 952
    • Actual for 7/1: 956
    • Projection for 7/2: 958