Games with Models, 6/15/20 Data


At this point, Rhode Island’s COVID-19 situation is improving so rapidly that adherence to minimum space between each stage of reopening is coming to seem obstinate.  Moreover, the claim of the governor to be acting under emergency powers is increasingly mismatched to the facts on the ground.

After a slight swing to the barest three-figure number a few days, Rhode Island is back down, now to the lowest number of new positive tests since March 27.  If that was the BLM-protest surge, keeping a holding patter on everybody else makes little sense.  (Anecdotally, I can report that weekly attendance at church has gone up each weekend since the initial post-lock-down Mass, and at current trends, the church will have to start turning people away soon… or decide that it is just not going to do so.)

As the following chart shows, the number of people in the hospital testing positive for COVID-19 is now in the low hundreds, and those in intensive care are in the low twenties.  Best of all, deaths have been below five for nine days, at least as currently reported.


(See here for my original methodology and here for a subsequent modification I made.)

Projections versus actuals (date of report).

  • Cases:
    • Projection for 6/15: None made
    • Actual for 6/15: 16,093
    • Projection for 6/16: 16,140
  • Hospitalizations:
    • Projection for 6/15: None made
    • Actual for 6/15: 127
    • Projection for 6/16: 122
  • Deaths:
    • Projections for 6/15: None made
    • Actual for 6/15: 851
    • Projection for 6/15: 853