Games with Models, 6/17/20 Data

COVID19-hospitalizationsandprojections-061720-featured

On we go. The chart of hospitalization projections for this post is extended out to the end of July, by which time the model shows essentially none.  Of course, that may not come to pass because the state isn’t reporting people in the hospital because of COVID-19, but rather those who test positive while in the hospital.  That may help explain why daily hospital discharges have been lower than in earlier weeks: the people being counted are there for other reasons, so they’ll be released according to the non-COVID-19 schedules of their illnesses or injuries.

New positive tests are back under 50 in today’s report, despite nearly 3,000 administered.  And every other measure is improving, as well.  According to today’s numbers, it has now been 10 days since the state had more than five people known to have COVID-19 die.

COVID19-hospitalizationsandprojections-061720

(See here for my original methodology and here for a subsequent modification I made.)

Projections versus actuals (date of report).

  • Cases:
    • Projection for 6/17: 16,214
    • Actual for 6/17: 16,213
    • Projection for 6/18: 16,261
  • Hospitalizations:
    • Projection for 6/17: 123
    • Actual for 6/17: 126
    • Projection for 6/18: 121
  • Deaths:
    • Projections for 6/17: 868
    • Actual for 6/17: 876
    • Projection for 6/18: 879