Games with Models, 6/18/20 Data


Rhode Island has now gone a full week with fewer than 100 newly positive tests for COVID-19.  Consequently, today’s data report is the first since early April that shows fewer than 1,000 “active”cases, which I’ve been defining with the assumption that the average case lasts 14 days.

Daily deaths also continue to be very low, making more significant the unanswered question of whether the deaths we’re seeing are actually attributable to the disease or just coincidental.  As currently reported, we’ve gone 10 days with no more than two COVID-19 deaths occurring in the hospital on any given day.

On the negative side, the number of people in intensive care with COVID-19 went back over 20 for the first time in a few days, and hospitalization held steady.  On the other hand, discharges were up a bit, and again, we have to be mindful of the fact that people may be in the hospital for other reasons while testing positive for the virus.



(See here for my original methodology and here for a subsequent modification I made.)

Projections versus actuals (date of report).

  • Cases:
    • Projection for 6/18: 16,261
    • Actual for 6/18: 16,269
    • Projection for 6/19: 16,312
  • Hospitalizations:
    • Projection for 6/18: 121
    • Actual for 6/18: 126
    • Projection for 6/19: 118
  • Deaths:
    • Projections for 6/18: 879
    • Actual for 6/18: 885
    • Projection for 6/19: 887