Games with Models, 6/24/20 Data


Rhode Island’s COVID-19 data is coming up to some milestones, and the conversation should start to transition to following economic recovery.  We’ll have posts along those lines in the near future, although I’m not sure what would be of value additional to the regular coverage of employment and the economy we offer.

Pretty soon, Rhode Island should cross below 800 active cases (defined as an average 14-day sickness).  We should also see a full three-week stretch during which no days brought double-digits of deaths among people who are infected with COVID-19.  And my hospitalization model suggests that the number should dip below 100 people tomorrow.


(See here for my original methodology and here for a subsequent modification I made.)

Projections versus actuals (date of report).

  • Cases:
    • Projection for 6/24: 16,570
    • Actual for 6/24: 16,606
    • Projection for 6/25: 16,646
  • Hospitalizations:
    • Projection for 6/24: 103
    • Actual for 6/24: 104
    • Projection for 6/25: 97
  • Deaths:
    • Projection for 6/24: 908
    • Actual for 6/24: 912
    • Projection for 6/25: 914

  • Mario

    I actually think things aren’t looking great. It’s small, but 73 cases just seems too high, it’s twice what I would expect. I was willing to ignore Tuesday and attribute that to its usual Tuesday-ness, but seeing it again today has me worried. It happened on Friday, too, but the weekend was great so there seemed to be nothing to worry about. But how many times do you have to feel a drop on your head before you start thinking rain? I now have 931 total deaths with the last one on the 7th, still. So, overall I’m not concerned, this could be a change in where the testing is taking place, or the people being tested, but it’s still a trend that should be watched.

    I expect 28 cases tomorrow, but if the testing is anything like the last couple of days it could be 35, 105 hospitalizations, 3 deaths. Like I said, I expect the deaths to stop on July 7th (or so), zero new cases around the 16th, and the last person leaves the hospital on the 26th (ignoring the inevitable, odd, post-pandemic imported cases). As far off as I have been concerning the total number of deaths, and I’ve been way off (and I’m sure I still am! They just won’t behave), my projected timeline has been pretty consistent for well over a month.