Games with Models, 6/24/20 Data

Rhode Island’s COVID-19 data is coming up to some milestones, and the conversation should start to transition to following economic recovery.  We’ll have posts along those lines in the near future, although I’m not sure what would be of value additional to the regular coverage of employment and the economy we offer.

Pretty soon, Rhode Island should cross below 800 active cases (defined as an average 14-day sickness).  We should also see a full three-week stretch during which no days brought double-digits of deaths among people who are infected with COVID-19.  And my hospitalization model suggests that the number should dip below 100 people tomorrow.

COVID19-hospitalizationsandprojections-062420

(See here for my original methodology and here for a subsequent modification I made.)

Projections versus actuals (date of report).

  • Cases:
    • Projection for 6/24: 16,570
    • Actual for 6/24: 16,606
    • Projection for 6/25: 16,646
  • Hospitalizations:
    • Projection for 6/24: 103
    • Actual for 6/24: 104
    • Projection for 6/25: 97
  • Deaths:
    • Projection for 6/24: 908
    • Actual for 6/24: 912
    • Projection for 6/25: 914

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