Games with Models, 6/5/20 Data

COVID19-hospitalizationsandprojections-060520-featured

The most interesting thing about today’s COVID-19 update for Rhode Island was that yesterday was the single biggest day for testing, but with positive tests staying relatively steady.  Out of 4,304 tests, only 113 came back positive (2.6%).

What that means… who knows.  It could be that people are nervous about going back into the world (including to massive rallies), so they’re getting tested just to know.  Or maybe going back into the world is allowing other illnesses to ramp back up, so they’re feeling sick and being tested.  Or maybe it’s allergies.  Or maybe the people with the tests are just doing more to find people willing to submit to them.

Whatever the reason, it’s certainly a positive in terms of COVID-19.  And so it is for other metrics.  New hospital admissions who tested positive for COVID-19 were in the single digits for the second day.  The number in the hospital didn’t go down as much as one might hope, but that was largely because hospital discharges are down, too.  Since intensive care units are going down, it seems likely that more people in the hospital with COVID-19 are actually there for other reasons that keep them there longer.

Meanwhile, deaths remain the single digits per day, with the double-digit reports reflecting revisions.  Today, some of the “new” deaths actually happened in early May, so their addition to the count doesn’t create any new reasons for concern.

COVID19-hospitalizationsandprojections-060520

(See here for my original methodology and here for a subsequent modification I made.)

Projections versus actuals (date of report).

  • Cases:
    • Projection for 6/5: 15,405
    • Actual for 6/5: 15,441
    • Projection for 6/6: 15,519
  • Hospitalizations:
    • Projection for 6/5: 177
    • Actual for 6/5: 182
    • Projection for 6/6: 171
  • Deaths:
    • Projections for 6/5: 760
    • Actual for 6/5: 772
    • Projection for 6/6: 776