Games with Models, 7/2/20 Data


A short one, today.

The number of new COVID-19 cases in RI was higher today than it’s been, but the number of tests was up, and we’re still under 100.  Moreover, all of the other data points continued in the right direction.  Hospitalizations and intensive care units both continued downward, and deaths continued to be low single digits.


(See here for my original methodology and here for a subsequent modification I made. A thorough explanation of the chart is included in this post.)

Projections versus actuals (date of report).

  • Cases:
    • Projection for 7/2: 16,885
    • Actual for 7/2: 16,941
    • Projection for 7/3: 16,977
  • Hospitalizations:
    • Projection for 7/2: 66
    • Actual for 7/2: 67
    • Projection for 7/3: 62
  • Deaths:
    • Projection for 7/2: 958
    • Actual for 7/2: 959
    • Projection for 7/3: 961

  • Lou

    Not a lot of epidemiological hypothesizing today. Are you just glad you don’t live in a red state that reopened too early? I’ll bet those freeloaders want us to bail them out of a another crisis derived from their own ignorance and negligence. What say you Mr. Fiscal Conservative, do we write them a check, or are you a man of principle?