Games with Models, April 24 Data

As today’s charts show, the state continues to adjust numbers of COVID-19 cases from prior days, so it news reports about increases and decreases have to be put in context.  For example, the report is that the number of people in RI hospitals with the disease is said to have remained the same, at 267, but yesterday’s number was revised upward, to 274, so today actually saw a seven-person decrease.  As of now, the peak in hospitalizations is still reported to have been this past Tuesday, the 21st, but the number has been revised upward by two, to 280.

The number of new reported cases remains high, however.  In absolute terms, the 437 new positive tests is the most we’ve seen.  That said, it’s almost exactly in line with the week-long trend of about 7% increase in total cases per day.

Here are the two charts from my hospitalization projections.  (See here for the original methodology and here for the modification.)  As a reminder, the difference between the two is really just the way I’m making the last step of the calculation to project future numbers.  At this point, I’d probably say the modified chart is “my prediction,” but I’ll continue producing the original one for consistency and because, hey, screen pixels are cheap.

COVID19-hospitalizationsandprojections-042420

COVID19-hospitalizationsandprojections-042420-mod

  • Cases:
    • Projection for 4/24: 6,511
    • Actual for 4/24: 6,699
    • Projection for 4/25: 6,954
  • Hospitalizations:
    • Projection for 4/24: 303 or 254 (mod)
    • Actual for 4/24: 267
    • Projection for 4/25: 300 or 252 (mod)
  • Deaths:
    • Projection for 4/24: 197
    • Actual for 4/24: 202
    • Projection for 4/25: 210

 

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