On the Cusp of a Downgrade and Games with Models, 7/7/20 Data


Hank Berrien makes an interesting observation about coronavirus trends on the Daily Wire:

On Friday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported that the percentage of deaths in the United States has dipped low enough so that the nation is at the epidemic threshold, which means if the percentage drops any lower, the CDC will no longer call the coronavirus an epidemic.

The observation reinforces the point that deaths (i.e., the most concerning statistic for a disease outbreak) have not yet followed the increase in cases of COVID-19.  Whether that “yet” proves superfluous will be seen soon, but it isn’t at all a sure thing.

Meanwhile, a return to the data after a long weekend shows Rhode Island continuing on the good path.  New positive tests per day have remained under 100 now for 26 days.  The 14-day infection rate has gone below 0.04, which means it now takes 25 people carrying the disease for two weeks to infect one additional person.  Rhode Island has also gone more than a month now without having a day during which at least 10 people died of the disease.

Regarding hospitalizations, the state moved its data up a day for some reason.  Whereas before there was a two-day lag in hospitalizations compared with other data points, now there is only a one day lag.  That adjustment aside, intensive care units housing COVID-19-positive patients have been under 10 since the start of the new month, and hospitalizations continue their decrease.


(See here for my original methodology and here for a subsequent modification I made. A thorough explanation of the chart is included in this post.)

Projections versus actuals (date of report).

  • Cases:
    • Projection for 7/7: 17,110
    • Actual for 7/7: 17,154
    • Projection for 7/8: 17,154
  • Hospitalizations:
    • Projection for 7/7: 54
    • Actual for 7/7: 55
    • Projection for 7/8: 50
  • Deaths:
    • Projection for 7/7: 969
    • Actual for 7/7: 969
    • Projection for 7/8: 971

  • Lou

    It must pain you to as an amateur scientist to opine on “Kung Flu” and not have anything negative to say about the Governor. That’s not what you are getting paid for… I hereby order the “political class” to confiscate your property in form a Katz-DeVos Freedom Voucher. You’re going to have to pay your own tuition again this year…no taxpayer bailout for you!

  • ritaxednorep

    So, it may not be an epidemic any longer. Any one want to let Queena in on that as she renews her emergency powers for another 30 days?

  • ShannonEntropy

    So nationally case rates are going up whilst deaths are going down… meaning the actual fatality rate is dropping faster than Joe Biden’s Glascow Coma Scale score

    Wonder when the MSM will get around to reporting that ??