Hank Berrien makes an interesting observation about coronavirus trends on the Daily Wire:
On Friday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported that the percentage of deaths in the United States has dipped low enough so that the nation is at the epidemic threshold, which means if the percentage drops any lower, the CDC will no longer call the coronavirus an epidemic.
The observation reinforces the point that deaths (i.e., the most concerning statistic for a disease outbreak) have not yet followed the increase in cases of COVID-19. Whether that “yet” proves superfluous will be seen soon, but it isn’t at all a sure thing.
Meanwhile, a return to the data after a long weekend shows Rhode Island continuing on the good path. New positive tests per day have remained under 100 now for 26 days. The 14-day infection rate has gone below 0.04, which means it now takes 25 people carrying the disease for two weeks to infect one additional person. Rhode Island has also gone more than a month now without having a day during which at least 10 people died of the disease.
Regarding hospitalizations, the state moved its data up a day for some reason. Whereas before there was a two-day lag in hospitalizations compared with other data points, now there is only a one day lag. That adjustment aside, intensive care units housing COVID-19-positive patients have been under 10 since the start of the new month, and hospitalizations continue their decrease.
Projections versus actuals (date of report).
- Projection for 7/7: 17,110
- Actual for 7/7: 17,154
- Projection for 7/8: 17,154
- Projection for 7/7: 54
- Actual for 7/7: 55
- Projection for 7/8: 50
- Projection for 7/7: 969
- Actual for 7/7: 969
- Projection for 7/8: 971