The reduction of hospitalizations of people testing positive for COVID-19 was back on track in today’s data release from the RI Dept. of Health.  New admissions, while up from the previous couple days, were still in line with the past week while discharges jumped up beyond the recent average.

Meanwhile, the increase in new cases was among the smallest in months despite a jump in the number of total tests.

The problem point continues to be deaths.  Revisions to prior days again makes the one-day increase look bigger than it was, but it still came in at 13, which is pretty much in line with the daily average for the past two/three weeks.  The stubbornness of this number in light of decreases elsewhere in the data, along with the fact that the majority of deaths are still occurring outside of the hospital, raise questions about what the numbers actually reflect.  Are these people dying because of COVID-19, or are they people dying who happen to test positive for COVID-19?

(See here for my original methodology and here for a subsequent modification I made.)

Projections versus actuals (date of report).

• Cases:
  • Projection for 5/22: 13,712
  • Actual for 5/22: 13,736
  • Projection for 5/23: 13,872
• Hospitalizations:
  • Projection for 5/22: 245
  • Actual for 5/22: 242
  • Projection for 5/23: 235
• Deaths:
  • Projection for 5/22: 562
  • Actual for 5/22: 579
  • Projection for 5/23: 585