Games with Models, 5/26/20


After a long, Memorial Day weekend, we return to good new on Rhode Island’s COVID-19 front.  Despite some loosening of the lock-down and people’s patience with the rules wearing thin, for two days, new positive cases have been under 80.  Granted many fewer people were tested, but that could be because fewer people felt the need to be tested.

As the chart below shows, hospitalizations are down, too, more or less in line with projections.  It’s worth noting, again, that the hospitalization numbers are two days behind and that the drop in hospitalizations would be lower but for a reduced number of discharges.

The number of daily deaths appears to provide some room for hope, too.  Although they’ve been subject to periodic revision, it appears at the moment that we’ve shifted to a lower gear, with deaths consistently in the single digits each day.



(See here for my original methodology and here for a subsequent modification I made.)

Projections versus actuals (date of report).

  • Cases:
    • Projection for 5/26: none made
    • Actual for 5/26: 14,210
    • Projection for 5/27: 14,314
  • Hospitalizations
    • Projection for 5/26: none made
    • Actual for 5/26: 226
    • Projection for 5/27: 219
  • Deaths
    • Projection for 5/26: none made
    • Actual for 5/26: 634
    • Projection for 5/27: 639