Games with Models, 5/15/20 Data

With the state having tested about one in 10 Rhode Islanders for COVID-19, the pace of the increase in positive results continues to slow.  That is among the multiple positive signs in the latest data release.  The infection rate of the disease over a 14-day time span is down to 0.36, with 1.00 as the pivot point between expansion and retreat.

As the following chart shows, the number of hospitalizations increased by one.  Remember that this number is, for some reason, two days behind the others, so that is the count for Tuesday.  Given the typical progression of the disease, that is likely too early for the slight increase to be a reflection of the mildly more loose rules imposed by the governor.  However, if we keep in mind that the state changed its hospitalization numbers to reflect all people testing positive for the virus no matter the reason they are in the hospital, the increase could indicate that people returning to hospitals for other procedures simply tested positive, whether they had symptoms or not.

By way of a reminder, the dashed blue line is my original projection, and the dashed red line was the last projection before the state stopped trying to figure out who was actually in the hospital because of COVID-19. (See here for my original methodology and here for a subsequent modification I made.)


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