Games with Models, 6/12/20 Data
And… we’re back down to double-digit daily new cases of COVID-19 in Rhode Island, according to today’s data release. Hospital admissions moved back down to single digits, while discharges increased. Deaths, as well, remain in the single digits per day, now with a seven-day run.
So, all in all, the outlook is improving. Within a few days, we’ll know whether the mass protests had a notable effect, and either way, we can all begin demanding our summer back with more confidence.
(See here for my original methodology and here for a subsequent modification I made.)
Projections versus actuals (date of report).
- Cases:
- Projection for 6/12: 15,918
- Actual for 6/12: 15,947
- Projection for 6/13: 16,001
- Hospitalizations:
- Projection for 6/12: 138
- Actual for 6/12: 141
- Projection for 6/13: 128
- Deaths:
- Projections for 6/12: 826
- Actual for 6/12: 833
- Projection for 6/13: 836