Games with Models, 6/12/20 Data

And… we’re back down to double-digit daily new cases of COVID-19 in Rhode Island, according to today’s data release.  Hospital admissions moved back down to single digits, while discharges increased.  Deaths, as well, remain in the single digits per day, now with a seven-day run.

So, all in all, the outlook is improving.  Within a few days, we’ll know whether the mass protests had a notable effect, and either way, we can all begin demanding our summer back with more confidence.


(See here for my original methodology and here for a subsequent modification I made.)

Projections versus actuals (date of report).

  • Cases:
    • Projection for 6/12: 15,918
    • Actual for 6/12: 15,947
    • Projection for 6/13: 16,001
  • Hospitalizations:
    • Projection for 6/12: 138
    • Actual for 6/12: 141
    • Projection for 6/13: 128
  • Deaths:
    • Projections for 6/12: 826
    • Actual for 6/12: 833
    • Projection for 6/13: 836

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