And… the positive news continues on the COVID-19 front.

The number of new positive cases was up 107, while the number of active cases (if we assume an average of two-week infections) went down 106.  In other words, roughly speaking, twice as many people got better yesterday than tested positive.

Reported deaths increased by 10, but once again, that included revisions going back a while.  On a day-to-day basis, we’re still at 5 or less over the last few days, and regularly in the single digits for the past couple weeks.  Two days ago (the last available for hospital information), zero patients died in the hospital, as far as we know at the moment.

That fact, as well as the fact that the number of people discharged from hospitals fell by more than half the day before help account for the modest improvement in hospital numbers, despite the fact that only seven new cases checked in.  (That’s the first single-digit admissions day since March.)

(See here for my original methodology and here for a subsequent modification I made.)

Projections versus actuals (date of report).

• Cases:
  • Projection for 6/3: 15,199
  • Actual for 6/3: 15,219
  • Projection for 6/4: 15,302
• Hospitalizations:
  • Projection for 6/3: 178
  • Actual for 6/3: 189
  • Projection for 6/4: 181
• Deaths:
  • Projections for 6/3: 736
  • Actual for 6/3: 742
  • Projection for 6/4: 746