Today’s COVID-19 data release from the state government was along the same lines.  The rate of increase of new cases continued to drop, with today’s result coming in below my projection.  This means we’re still on a downward trend since I estimated active cases of 4,786 on April 25.

Hospitalizations came in higher than I’d estimated, but that was largely because the state revised prior days.  Thus, whereas the Dept. of Health had reported 266 yesterday and 266 again today, the number given for the day before is actually 272.  This round of revisions also lowered the peak on 4/21 by one, to 277.

 

• Cases:
  • Projection for 4/28: 7,949
  • Actual for 4/28: 7,926
  • Projection for 4/29: 8,136
• Hospitalizations:
  • Projection for 4/28: 258 (original method = 277)
  • Actual for 4/28: 266
  • Projection for 4/29: 256 (original method = 266)
• Deaths:
  • Projection for 4/28: 234
  • Actual for 4/28: 239
  • Projection for 4/29: 245