July 2014 Employment: The Dream Is Over

On the one hand, Rhode Island’s nightmare of being the worst state in the country when it comes to unemployment has ended.  Two states well away from New England — Georgia and Mississippi — let the Ocean State slip past them on the ranking.

On the other hand, the six months of historic employment growth that have been visible in Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data (if nowhere else) came to a screeching halt in July.  Employment increased almost not at all, up eight people to 515,399.  Meanwhile, the state’s labor force, which had been growing as well, dipped by more than 1,000 people.  That means the unemployment rate dropped even though the underlying trends went south.

The basic employment chart, however, shows that we’re still in the la-la land of a likely downward revision.

Sticking to our own region, at least with respect to our neighbors, shows that, while Rhode Island’s job market might be at home in the Deep South, on the New England hill, it’s still the family basket case.

Of course, a six-month surge of nation-leading employment growth (on paper, anyway) can’t happen without having some notable effect.  At the very least, Rhode Islanders can say that they’re only at the bottom of the national heap, when it comes to employment’s distance from peak, not a distant outlier.

Meanwhile, however erratic the employment data may be, the number of jobs based in Rhode Island continues its minimal (if steady) growth.  As we’ve explored in recent weeks, the difference does not appear to be that Rhode Islanders are finding jobs in neighboring states, although some of it may be explained by a drift toward increasing part-time employment.

NOTE: The missing chart showing the employment numbers compared with state income tax revenue still cannot be updated, because the state Dept. of Revenue Office of Revenue Analysis still hasn’t produced its June or July editions of its revenue report.  As soon as the numbers are available, I’ll post an update.

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