Games with Models, 5/21/20 Data


In her daily press conference, today, Governor Gina Raimondo apparently stated that if she’d known then what she knows now, she would have shutdown the state’s economy sooner.  This as the state Department of Labor and Training announces April’s unemployment rate as 17%, with nearly 100,000 RI-based jobs simply evaporating (that’s about 20%).  That is the highest unemployment rate (by far) since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began tracking numbers in the ’70s.

Let’s hope there aren’t any more pandemics — or even particularly bad flu seasons — while this governor remains in office.  She’ll have a hair-trigger standard for shutting down, even as some of us believe the data and medical findings are suggesting that, if we knew then what we know now, we never needed to shut down at all.

Today’s data release was good news.  The number of new cases of COVID-19 dropped, with the 14-day infection rate falling below 0.3 (where 1.0 is the threshold between expanding and receding).  The number of reported deaths went up quite a bit, but that included revisions to numbers for prior days going back to April 15. New deaths were six and nine for the prior to days.

The best news came with hospitalizations.  The number of newly admitted patients went down again, while the number of discharged patients went up quite a bit, although not to the two-week average, for some reason.

COVID19-hospitalizationsandprojections-052120

(See here for my original methodology and here for a subsequent modification I made.)

Projections versus actuals (date of report).

  • Cases:
    • Projection for 5/21: 13,492
    • Actual for 5/21: 13,571
    • Projection for 5/22: 13,712
  • Hospitalizations:
    • Projection for 5/21: 241
    • Actual for 5/21: 254
    • Projection for 5/22: 245
  • Deaths:
    • Projection for 5/21: 543
    • Actual for 5/21: 556
    • Projection for 5/22: 562

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