Games with Models, April 26 Data

Rhode Island took another step in the right direction with Sunday’s COVID-19 report.  The rate of increase of total cases dropped significantly.  After several days stuck at about 7% increase per day, the rate dropped to 6.4% yesterday and 4.3% today.

Hospitalizations continued their longer-standing downward trend, increasing hope that the 280 on April 21 was the peak.  For reference, my original prediction was that the peak would be 321 people on April 22.  At the time, the governor and the IHME were both predicting several more weeks of increase and frightening numbers of hospitalizations — in the thousands.

By way of a reminder, the “modified” prediction reflects an adjustment I made when it was clear my original formula wasn’t handling the change from increase to decrease correctly.  I reproduce the original charts in the interest of continuity.  (See here for the original methodology and here for the modification.)




  • Cases:
    • Projection for 4/26: 7,393
    • Actual for 4/26: 7,439
    • Projection for 4/27: 7,701
  • Hospitalizations:
    • Projection for 4/26: 251 (original method = 297)
    • Actual for 4/26: 258
    • Projection for 4/27: 247
  • Deaths:
    • Projection for 4/26: 223
    • Actual for 4/26: 226
    • Projection for 4/27: 234
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