Games with Models, 7/8/20 Data

COVID19-hospitalizationsandprojections-070820-featured

Today’s data release from the state brings more non-dramatic continuation of trends.  Interestingly, the state has now added a new category of information on its spreadsheet to show the total count of positive tests including people who’d been tested before.  Thus far, apparently, we were tracking people tested, not tests administered.

So, it turns out that a total of 271,710 tests have been administered to 163,270 people.  Whereas 17,204 people have tested positive, there have been 24,698 positive tests.  (Presumably, that includes people who were being tested to see if they were clear of the virus, yet, and anybody who got sick again, if that has happened.)

Data notes aside, the daily number of new people testing positive remains low, with “active” cases, defined with an average illness length of 14 days, falling below 600 for the first time since the first of April.  Intensive care patients and deaths remain in the low single digits.

Hospitalizations aren’t falling as quickly as my model had suggested, but in that context, it’s worth a reminder that we’re counting anybody in the hospital for any reason who has tested positive for the virus.

COVID19-hospitalizationsandprojections-070820

(See here for my original methodology and here for a subsequent modification I made. A thorough explanation of the chart is included in this post.)

Projections versus actuals (date of report).

  • Cases:
    • Projection for 7/8: 17,154
    • Actual for 7/8: 17,204
    • Projection for 7/9: 17,240
  • Hospitalizations:
    • Projection for 7/8: 50
    • Actual for 7/8: 56
    • Projection for 7/9: 53
  • Deaths:
    • Projection for 7/8: 971
    • Actual for 7/8: 971
    • Projection for 7/9: 973


  • Mario

    In a long line of incompatible data updates, this might be the incompatiblest. With everything so different, it’s hard to see the value of tracking things. We still have two days with no recorded deaths, I have the total unaware infected population down to perhaps as few as 200 (it’s hard to estimate, but certainly fewer than 1000). With the rest of the country falling apart there is really no way to let the guard down, but I think it’s safe to say that the pandemic is basically over here. It would be interesting to see the information from the contact tracing, but I have a hard time believing that we still have community spread. We don’t have a pandemic in Rhode Island anymore, we just live next to one.

  • Lou

    Looks like your quest to have Tiverton emulate Fall River may be progressing.

    https://www.newportri.com/news/20200711/tiverton-has-highest-coronavirus-positive-test-rate-in-newport-county