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Checks on the Governor
Yesterday, the Flanders Legal Center for Freedom, an initiative of the RI Center for Freedom & Prosperity, released a brief analysis of the laws under which Governor Gina Raimondo has been dictating rules for all Rhode Islanders and our businesses, churches, and organizations.
Correction: Survival Rate is Over 98.7%. Slow-Walk Re-Open is Unnecessary.
In a prior post, I had noted that the survival rate of COVID-19 in the United States is 94%. I was mistaken. In fact, the survival rate is 98.7%. From Health Affairs:
The IFR-S in the US was estimated to be 1.3% …. The overall IFR for COVID-19 should be lower when we account for cases that remain and recover without symptoms.
Guidance on an Open-Ended Shutdown
The inability of Newport hotel owners to make plans points to a failure of Rhode Island’s political system, especially the General Assembly, to make decisions in the correct way.
Politics This Week with John DePetro: The Push-Back Begins
My weekly call-in on John DePetro’s WNRI 1380 AM/95.1 FM show, for May 11, included talk about:
- The governor’s New Order
- Cops push back
- Protesters push back
- The press pushes back
- Will businesses push back?
- Will the General Assembly push back?
- Elorza gets push-back and stumbles
I’ll be on again Monday, May 18, at 12:00 p.m. on WNRI 1380 AM and I-95.1 FM.
Some Last-Minute Tone for You Subjects Stakeholders
Perhaps a commerce communications director could craft a better message for anxious business owners, but that wouldn’t be the tone his boss is promoting.
Clay Johnson: Officials Forgetting Foundational Importance of Hum of Running Economy
I applaud the decision makers, at all levels of government, that quickly responded to the medical crisis. But health issues only represent one component of the challenges in front of us. We all hunkered down for weeks to ‘flatten the curve.’ Our common goal was to ensure that, as a community, we had enough hospital beds for those most vulnerable. Well, we’ve flattened the curve. (And we know now that the survival rate of COVID-19 in the United States is almost 95%.) Why then are governments having a hard time moving to the next stage during this time of testing? I can only believe that most people were more familiar with the fears and responses to the medical side of the crisis.
Let’s explore the impact on small businesses. Almost half of all employees in the United States work for a small business. In fact, 96% of Rhode Island businesses are small businesses. They are the engine of our economy. Business owners can feel in their bones, the impact of this shutdown on Rhode Island. We owe it to the rest of the citizens of Rhode Island to communicate this feeling.
Politics to Define the Spherical Cow
Perhaps the biggest failure of government in the COVID-19 crisis has been the suspension of regular politics, which helps leaders respond to public sentiment and invests the public in the decisions.
The Trickery of an Unenforceable Mask Order
An interesting discrepancy can be observed between the way Governor Gina Raimondo’s decree that everybody must wear face masks in public places was reported yesterday and the text of the order itself.
Warning Sign in a Once-Representative Democracy
Rhode Islanders should take the indicted ex-mayor of Fall River as a warning sign as our governor assumes authority to review the business models and safety plans for every organization in the state.
Politics This Week with John DePetro: The Emergence Begins…?
My weekly call-in on John DePetro’s WNRI 1380 AM/95.1 FM show, for May 4, included talk about:
- The governor and reopening
- Hospitalization counts
- The General Assembly peeks its head out
- Mattiello and the AG
- Achorn drops from the Providence Journal editorial branch
- A big budget hole
I’ll be on again Monday, May 11, at 12:00 p.m. on WNRI 1380 AM and I-95.1 FM.
Continuation of the COVID-19 Lockdown is Even More Indefensible in Light of Survival Rate
As noted, the survival rate of COVID-19 in United States is over 94%. Now for the implication of this data point with regard to our government’s choice of course – an onerous and heavily damaging lockdown.
Contrary to the Impression We May Have, Survival Rate of COVID-19 in United States is Over 94%
This is to offer an important data point about COVID-19 that doesn’t get much attention. The United States has, to date, experienced 1,092,815 confirmed and probable cases of COVID-19. 64,283 of those cases, or 5.88%, have resulted in death. To be clear, 5.88% of people who got the disease have died from it, not 5.88% […]
Of Science and the Silent Media
Governor Raimondo wants Rhode Islanders to take on faith that she actually has the authority she’s wielding and that she’s basing decisions on “science,” but the public, and the news media, should not follow the cult of personality.
The Lockdown, Not the Disease, is Overwhelming Hospitals. End It.
The COVID-19 shutdown is financially decimating hospitals. End it now.
More Information about Ineffectuality of Shutdown: Over 75% of RI COVID Deaths Are Occurring in Nursing Homes
WPRI Channel 12’s Eli Sherman and Walt Buteau reported on April 17 that 80% of COVID-19 deaths in Rhode Island have occurred in nursing homes. (All deaths from a pandemic are awful but somehow a nursing home setting is especially horrifying both because of the vulnerability of the residents and the perception, normally correct, that nursing homes are safe places.)
This disturbing pattern continues with the most recent COVID mortalities announced by the state yesterday: 10 of 13 were nursing home residents.
Easter, Plain and Simple
Our very different Easter experience this year presents an opportunity to ask our elected officials to renew their vows, so to speak.
Chris Maxwell: Allow All Businesses to Re-Open Immediately Under “Manufacturers’ Pledge Model”
“Non-essential” businesses in Rhode Island remain shut down by order of Governor Gina Raimondo even as unemployment filings shoot up and COVID-19 projections drop markedly. While much of trucking has not been directly impacted by the shutdown order, as an industry that interacts with all businesses in Rhode Island – manufacturing, farms, restaurants, small shops, big box stores – trucking has a unique position and voice as Rhode Island looks to re-open.
The governor has said that she doesn’t know what regulations will be issued to allow businesses to re-open. But this is quickly and easily fulfilled: the state simply need to tell all businesses to follow the manufacturers’ lead and take the same pledge that was exclusively afforded to this sector several weeks ago.
Raimondo Runs It All, Hair and in Church
The governor only has her dictatorial authority to micromanage every organization and civil right in our state if the rest of us pretend along with her.
Games with Models, April 21 Data
The emerging question when it comes to the daily data releases for COVID-19 in Rhode Island continues to be: which metric should we be watching? Today, the number of cases continued to outstrip my prediction as did, tragically, the number deaths. However, the number of hospitalizations, which is the focus of my model, went down one from yesterday and was, therefore, substantially lower than my prediction.
The reason the model I developed shows what looks like an upward correction and the predicted decline spreading out has to do with the number of cases. The rate of growth is slowing, but not as quickly as it had been, which means there are more “active” cases than expected, and that’s the foundation of my hospitalization predictions. (By the way, here’s the original post of this series, with my methodology.)
The three key metrics now look as follows:
- Cases:
- Projection for 4/21: 5,311
- Actual for 4/21: 5,500
- Projection for 4/22: 5,731
- Hospitalizations:
- Projection for 4/21: 296
- Actual for 4/21: 271
- Projection for 4/22: 302
- Deaths:
- Projection for 4/21: 162
- Actual for 4/21: 171
- Projection for 4/22: 178
The level of power Governor Raimondo is claiming for herself is huge, and it is noticeable in subtle ways. For example, in an article on GoLocal about how she’s had her hair done even as Rhode Islanders are prevented from doing the same, the governor tells “hairdressers, barbers, gig economy workers” to file for unemployment “until I can find a way to get you open safely.”
Notice that it’s all up to her. She is going to find a way. She is going to tell you when you can work again. If she is going to do that, she should give Rhode Islanders detailed information and data about how she is making decisions so we can judge for ourselves whether what she is concluding is reasonable or ridiculous.
Curve Flattened. End the COVID-19 Lockdown Now.
On March 16, the White House issued “15 Days to Slow the Spread” guidelines.
On March 28, Governor Gina Raimondo issues a stay-at-home order for Rhode Island.
At that time, the IHME’s model projected 100,000-240,000 deaths from COVID-19.
At that time, the goal of the lockdown was to “flatten the curve” of the disease so as to not overwhelm our hospitals with cases. Note, critically, that reducing the overall number of cases was NOT part of this goal but simply to spread them out.
Since March 28, the IHME’s projections have collapsed and the new projection for COVID fatalities is 60,000.
Since March 28, the results of numerous COVID-19 anti-body surveys have come in.