Howard Is Dishonest, but at Least He Pretends to Debate

Just like progressives use “science” as a talisman rather than a system of understanding, Sam Howard deploys “math” not as an actual discipline, but as a framework for lies and insults.

Games with Models, 5/8/20

As COVID-19 deaths continue to remain stubbornly consistent, as other measures decline, it should begin to change the way we think of the disease.

A Racist Disease (?) and Games with Models, 5/7/20 Data

Focusing on the racial attributes of Rhode Islanders who’ve tested positive for COVID-19 can obscure the information that is critical to understand about the disease.

Daily Update, 5/6/20

The Deaths We Don’t Know About, Yet, and Games with Models, 5/6/20 Data

The positive trends continue. All that can really be said is that my simplistic model seems to expect that things would be improving a little more quickly than they are, but that’s a good problem to have.

Daily Update, 5/5/20

A Travesty of Ages and Games with Models, 5/5/20 Data

As COVID-19 numbers in Rhode Island continue to improve, we should note that those at risk from the disease are different from those at risk from an economic shutdown and realize that we may have made a terrible mistake in our response.

Games with Models, 5/4/20 Data

Rhode Island’s daily reports on COVID-19 are settling into a pattern over the past few days. The number of total cases is growing more slowly each day, and hospitalizations are generally down, while deaths continue to increase at a more or less steady pace.

Continuation of the COVID-19 Lockdown is Even More Indefensible in Light of Survival Rate

As noted, the survival rate of COVID-19 in United States is over 94%. Now for the implication of this data point with regard to our government’s choice of course – an onerous and heavily damaging lockdown.

Contrary to the Impression We May Have, Survival Rate of COVID-19 in United States is Over 94%

This is to offer an important data point about COVID-19 that doesn’t get much attention. The United States has, to date, experienced 1,092,815 confirmed and probable cases of COVID-19.  64,283 of those cases, or 5.88%, have resulted in death.  To be clear, 5.88% of people who got the disease have died from it, not 5.88% […]

Games with Models, May 3 Data

The best news today comes from the number of positive cases of COVID-19 in Rhode Island, which along with hospitalizations, suggests that we’re on the downward slope.

The Difference Between Actual Data and “As Reported”

Rhode Island’s news media is reporting 17 more COVID-19 deaths, which sounds like a lot until you realize that, according to the state, only one of them was reported to have actually happened yesterday.

Games with Models, 5/2/20 Data

Revisions of COVID-19 hospitalization and death numbers going back weeks do raise questions, but trends continue to be generally positive.

Daily Update, 5/1/20

Games with Models with a Moving Target, 5/1/20 Data

Various bits of news are making the case that government COVID-19 statistics are now inflating the numbers, but even so, today’s report for RI has some good news.

Games with Models, All Out of Trust Edition, 4/30/20 Data

The Dept. of Health’s big revision of COVID-19 hospitalization numbers raises doubts about the state’s numbers and (depending on the new methodology) might make hospitalizations useless for judging the danger of the disease.

Transgenderism and the Emperor’s New Clothes

“The Emperor’s New Clothes” is a story affirming that there is such a thing as truth, even when people are tricked or bullied into pretending otherwise.

Daily Frustration and Update, 4/29/20

Games with Models, April 29 Data (And an Argument About Our Neighbors)

The situation continues to improve in RI, although not as quickly as we might like, and the trends in our neighboring states should not stop us from loosening the shutdown.

The Lockdown, Not the Disease, is Overwhelming Hospitals.  End It.

The COVID-19 shutdown is financially decimating hospitals. End it now.

Games with Models, April 28 Data

Today’s COVID-19 data release from the state government was along the same lines. The rate of increase of new cases continued to drop.

Reopening RI (And Giving Up Power) Too Slowly

The governor’s phases for opening the economy are too slow, too limited, and leave too much at her discretion for the foreseeable future.

Games with Models, April 27 Data

Despite a slight uptick in the number of hospitalizations, today was a very positive day for Rhode Island’s COVID-19 report.

Games with Models, April 26 Data

Rhode Island took another step in the right direction with Sunday’s COVID-19 report, with hope rising that April 21 was the peak for hospitalizations.

More Information about Ineffectuality of Shutdown: Over 75% of RI COVID Deaths Are Occurring in Nursing Homes

WPRI Channel 12’s Eli Sherman and Walt Buteau reported on April 17 that 80% of COVID-19 deaths in Rhode Island have occurred in nursing homes. (All deaths from a pandemic are awful but somehow a nursing home setting is especially horrifying both because of the vulnerability of the residents and the perception, normally correct, that nursing homes are safe places.)

This disturbing pattern continues with the most recent COVID mortalities announced by the state yesterday: 10 of 13 were nursing home residents.

Games with Models, April 25 Data

Today’s COVID-19 report for Rhode Island came with a mildly better turn.

The Difficult Math of COVID Death

Contrasting Roger Kimball’s calm erudition with the hysterics demanding “how many people do you want to die” points to a need for us to be able to consider difficult questions in public.

Games with Models, April 24 Data

Although it’s still looking plausible that Tuesday was RI’s peak for COVID-19 hospitalizations, the steady increase in total cases remains a concern.

Games with Models, April 23 Data

If we’ve found the steady rate of COVID-19 infections for our current level of lockdowns, that would point to the differences in models as well as the need to figure out what government is supposed to be for.

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